From harsh dictatorship to New Uzbekistan
uzbekistan
cabar.asia
Uzbekistan has had only two presidents in power for 32 years of independence. The first one, Islam Karimov, ruled the country with an iron hand, and the second one, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, tries to build the promising 'New Uzbekistan'.

The constitution of independent Uzbekistan was passed on December 8, 1992 at the session of the Supreme Soviet of the republic. The basic law of the country was amended 15 times in 31 years.

The last time the Constitution was amended was at the referendum on April 20, 2023. According to the amendments, the presidential term was increased from 5 to 7 years.
These amendments 'zeroed' the term of the incumbent president Shavkat Mirziyoyev and allowed him to run for president for two more seven-year terms. Thus, he ensured his time in office until 2037 (his current term will end in 2030 with the opportunity to be re-elected).

On July 9, 2023, the country had the early presidential election, where Mirziyoyev won outright and received 87.05 per cent of votes.

According to independent observers and experts, there were no real opposition candidates at the election.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Photo: press service of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Harsh rule of Islam Karimov
Islam Karimov came to power in 1989, and ruled until his death in 2016.

Shorty before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Karimov was appointed the party leader by the first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Uzbek SSR after being approved by the Political Bureau of the CPSU and personally by the President of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev. In 1990, he was appointed the president.

Karimov did now allow any dissidence and severely suppressed any attempts of protests against his power.

Islam Karimov. Photo: Islam Karimov Foundation
In the first years of Karimov's rule, there was the opposition in the country. Back then, two alternative parties, 'Birlik' (from Uzbek, unity' and 'Erk' (from Uzbek, will) fought against the incumbent authorities. The only challenger of Karimov at the 1991 presidential election in the then independent Republic of Uzbekistan was Mukhammad Salikh, leader of party 'Erk', who received over 12 per cent of votes. Salikh stated then that the election was rigged.

Right after the first election, the protests of students of Tashkent who took to the streets of the university campus in January 1992 to protest against rise in food prices were suppressed.
Back then, authorities opened fire on a crowd of young people, which resulted in deaths of several people, dozens of injured, while hundreds of protesters were beaten by the police.

It was the beginning of the government campaign against the political opposition and protest movement in the country.

After the harsh suppression of unrests, the government liquidated all secular and Islamic opposition parties and newspapers related to 'Erk' and 'Birlik', while hundreds of people were incarcerated. Uzbek authorities actively persecuted Mukhammad Salikh and his family, who emigrated to Türkiye.

In the same 1992, members of a range of Islamic parties prohibited in Uzbekistan fled to Afghanistan and established there the so-called 'Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan' (IMU) in 1996 with the purpose of bringing down the regime of Karimov. Political Islam became the main enemy of Islam Karimov. Following a series of terrorist attacks in Tashkent in 1999 and in New York City on September 11, 2001, the state started speaking about terrorism and became the key ally of Washington in their fight against international terrorism in the region.

All the subsequent years, the official propaganda focused on disclosure of Islamic extremists and fight against them. The main stronghold of the Karimov's rule developed in this context – Uzbek security services led by Rustam Inoyatov.

Persons and groups not related to religious extremism and terrorism suffered reprisals, too. According to the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), over 12 thousand Muslim Uzbeks became victims of criminal persecutions in 2015.

In 2009, Ikrom Yakubov, ex-officer of the National Security Service of Uzbekistan (SNB), who fled to Great Britain, said that President Islam Karimov personally ordered to torture and destroy his opponents.
Andijan events
One of the bloodiest and most tragic consequences of the repressive machine of Karimov were mass unrests in Andijan in 2005, initiated by relatives and supporters of businessmen convicted of extremism. During the protests, government forces opened fire on civilians.

Authorities insisted that less than 200 people died, the majority of whom were 'armed terrorists'. But, according to human rights organisations, nearly a thousand people died.
Andijan events. Photo: AP
After the event, missions of many international organisations were expelled from the country within a few months. The country fell into information isolation – foreign media outlets were blocked, foreign journalists and human rights activists were not allowed into the country.
Breach of the Constitution
Despite the Andijan events, Islam Karimov won the 2007 election with 91 per cent of votes. But, according to the Constitution, Karimov was not entitled to run for this office again.

In 1995, he extended the presidential term for five years by amending the Constitution with the support of 99.6 per cent of voters. In 2000, he was re-elected with 92 per cent of votes, and then he extended the term to 7 years.

Members of UzLiDep (Liberal Democratic Party of Uzbekistan – the ruling party of Uzbekistan, Editor' note) explained it by the fact that Karimov served one seven-year term after the Constitution was amended, so he was entitled to run for a second term.
The registration of the incumbent as candidate raised legal issues. […]There were no formal challenges regarding the issue, nor was it publicly discussed.
OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report
The last presidential election of Karimov was held in 2015, where he won with 90.39 per cent of votes.
Closed economy
Economic and political sanctions of the European Union and the United States following the severe suppression of mass unrests in Andizhan led to the international isolation of Uzbekistan. Only Moscow and Beijing, which was concerned over separatist moods of Muslims in East Turkestan, supported Karimov at that time.

The closed economy of Uzbekistan depended mainly on the revenue from raw materials, natural gas production and sales, and export of cotton. The World Bank reported sustainable growth as a result of the economic self-sufficiency, as well as the state-controlled economy.

Nevertheless, poverty and unemployment remained the key economic issues. Until 2016, according to official data, the number of migrant workers from Uzbekistan in the Russian Federation was 2 million people. According to Russian sources, there were much more, at least 4 million Uzbekistanis.

The period of Islam Karimov's rule was best remembered for the despotic behaviour and gross human rights violations. People who disagreed with Karimov's policy were forced to keep silent, many of them were detained in prisons by security forces for months, tortured to make confession statements.

The media was strictly censored and controlled. Each media outlet had an officially assigned supervisor from security services, who controlled both the content and private lives of journalists. With the development of internet, authorities of Uzbekistan began to block news websites and social media.

Islam Karimov was quite unfriendly with the neighbours and quarrelled with almost all Central Asian states. It's during his rule that all borders were mined and the visa regime was introduced, e.g., with Tajikistan.

The rule of Karimov lasted for 27 years in total.
Shavkat Mirziyoyev and 'New Uzbekistan'
Shavkat Mirziyoyev, second president of Uzbekistan, won the election in December 2016. Mirziyoyev was prime minister in the government of the late Islam Karimov, and acted as president after his death.
Despite the fact that Mirziyoyev was long a part of the top echelons of power during Karimov, he sharply criticised the methods of rule used by his predecessor once he became the president, and began to implement the 'open door' policy by declaring the strategy of building of the 'new Uzbekistan'.

New Uzbekistan must become an open country with open and fair society, Shavkat Mirziyoyev stated repeatedly.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev (on the left) and Islam Karimov (on the right). Photo from open sources
In fact, once he came to power, many things have changed for the better in Uzbekistan.

Mirziyoyev conducted significant staff purges of security agencies. The powers of once influential SNB were reduced and mass arrests of security officials, even high-rankings ones, followed. As a result, the head of SNB, Rustam Inoyatov, was dismissed.

Borders were opened, freedom of speech was improved, persecutions of religious leaders were ended, reforms were launched in the sphere of state, banking services, entrepreneurship, education and social sphere, etc. Prisons were reorganised, some oppositionists and human rights activists were released.

The administration of Uzbekistan immediately started a dialogue with ordinary public. People's reception offices were launched in less than a year, where people could file complaints about khokims, police agencies and public prosecution offices, and other complaints.

It became possible to criticise the power moderately in the Uzbek media. The influence of media, bloggers and activists in Uzbekistan increased rapidly, and Uzbekistan left the 'black zone' in the Press Freedom Index in 2019, for the first time in history.

The government of Uzbekistan launched customs and tax reforms. Liberalisation of the foreign currency market became one of the most expected changes. In the time of Karimov, citizens used to exchange foreign currency in the black market, where the rates were several times higher. Since 2017, all citizens of the country may exchange money legally in banks.

Mirziyoyev began to attract foreign investments actively. Foreign businesses, including Russian, came to the country.
Problems continue
Nevertheless, the government of Uzbekistan remains deeply authoritarian, according to observers. Backtracking on and slowdown in democratic reforms in the field of freedom of speech, and the hallmarks of nepotism cause special concern.

The level of freedom of speech in the country is still assessed as 'complicated' in the international rankings.

The Human Rights Watch noted a significant backtrack of Uzbekistan on democratic reforms in its 2022 global report.

"Freedom of speech and the media experienced clear setbacks. […]Although media activity in Uzbekistan has increased considerably since 2016, there was a notable decline in respect for speech and media freedoms in 2021. Journalists faced harassment, prosecution, and assault. Defamation and insult remain criminal offenses, despite President Mirziyoyev's decriminalization pledge in 2020," according to the report.

In July 2022, Uzbek authorities suppressed protests in Karakalpakstan, which took place in Nukus because the authorities decided to make amendments about the deprivation of Karakalpakstan of its status of a sovereign republic.

The protests were suppressed by force and use of fire weapon. According to official data, 21 people died, including four officers of force authorities, 243 people were wounded.

Several dozens of citizens, mainly civil activists, journalists and human rights defenders, were sentenced to imprisonment on charges of incitement of interethnic hatred and calls for overthrow of the constitutional system.

Local and international human rights institutions condemned Uzbekistan for excessive force used to disperse protesters and called on the Uzbek government to carry out a fair investigation and to hold accountable those responsible for the tragedy.

It should be noted that unlike the Karimov's regime, the current government showed humanism and willingness to a compromise. Citizens of Karakalpakstan managed to maintain their sovereignty. Some Karakalpakstan activists, who took part in protests, received suspended sentences.

Another sign of authoritarian political regime in Uzbekistan is the nepotism and concentration of rather significant key business assets in the hands of the incumbent president's family, and the political career of his daughter, Saida Mirziyoyeva.

In August 2023, President Mirziyoyev appointed his 38-year-old daughter Saida as the assistant of the leader of Uzbekistan, thus cancelling the posts of the head of the presidential administration and his/her deputies. In fact, she became the head of the presidential administration and the second person in his administration.

In July 2023, Radio Ozodlik and journalist Chris Rickleton published a major investigation on how the family of the president of Uzbekistan built a business empire and had influence on all economic sectors of the country.

According to political analyst Rafael Sattarov, attraction of foreign investments is necessary not only to attract money to the country and to develop entrepreneurship, but also to legalise and accumulate the capital of key elites of Uzbekistan and their children.

Mirziyoyev has unresolved major issues in the power system. Last winter, there was the energy crisis in Uzbekistan, and the national leadership failed the heating season.

Unlike Karimov, Mirziyoyev has made some efforts in liberalisation, but he still maintains great concentration of power within his family.

Once he came to power, people began to discuss Uzbekistan as an opening and reforming state. But it's obvious now that the country will fail to get rid of the administrative-command form of government in the foreseeable future, while all initiatives will still come from one person.

According to political analyst Timur Umarov, some economic expectations have been met, but the political situation has changed little. Uzbekistan still faces problems on its path to a more democratic and open society in the future.

Experts still do not know how the transfer of power will occur in Uzbekistan and who will be the next president of the country.
At the moment, the head of the presidential administration, Sardor Umurzakov, is seen as a potential successor. He is highly valued by the elites. But I think that Mirziyoyev could try to transfer power to his daughter or son. They rely on the experience of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan so far. Once they come up with a more stable option of the transfer of power, Mirziyoyev will cease to be the president.
Rafael Sattarov, political analyst
Shavkat Mirziyoyev has 14 years of legitimate rule ahead after his presidential term was set to zero and extended, Umarov said.
However, there are a few options [of transfer of power]: Kazakh, Turkmen or Kazakh-Russian with temporary job swap. But it's a complicated option requiring the new change of the Constitution, as Mirziyoyev will not transfer power to anyone for seven years. If the elites do not split, and are in peaceful consensus, the transit can go smoothly. But fair elections will not happen in the next decades because fair election is the institution that takes too long to build.
Timur Umarov, political analyst
author
CABAR.asia
editors:
Лола Олимова
Наталья Ли
Layout:
Наталья Ли

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