From chaos to authoritarianism
tajikistan
cabar.asia
For 30-odd years, Tajikistan has taken the path from complete anarchy during the civil war to the over-centralised state, where all major decisions are taken by the centre, while local officials only carry out them.

Only alternative elections?

Kakhhor Makkhamov in 2016. Photo: asiaplus.tj
Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan's leader was first secretary of the Communist Party (CPT) Kakhhor Makhkamov. In November 1990, he was elected the president of Tajikistan at the session of the Supreme Soviet of the republic, and became the first formal president of the country.

However, Kakhhor Makhkamov was dismissed in less than a year, on August 30, 1991, at the session of the Supreme Soviet by the followers of another former first secretary of CPT Rakhmon Nabiyev.
The decision of national presidential election was made at the same session. Eleven candidates were registered for participation in the election of November 24, 1991. However, the main competition unfolded between the two candidates – Rakhmon Nabiyev, ex-first secretary of the Communist Party of Tajikistan, and Davlat Khudonazarov, chair of the Union of Filmmakers of the USSR, prominent Tajik director.

According to Ibragim Usmanov, one of the political figures in the 90s, who was the agent of candidate Rakhmon Nabiev, it was the freest election in the national history.
We try so hard, but we have not had such elections [since then] because every nominated candidate, except for two persons, was a real candidate nominated by the people.
Ibragim Usmanov, one of the political figures in the 90s
Rakhmon Nabiyev, according to official data, received 56 per cent of votes on the voting day and became the first president of Tajikistan, who won at the national election. However, he failed to stabilise the political situation in the country.

At the end of March 1992, the opposition began protests at the square 'Shakhidon' in Dushanbe. Among the opposition were the followers of the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT, was prohibited in September 2015 by decision of the Supreme Court of Tajikistan), Democratic Party and public organisation 'Lali Badakhshon'. The protesters demanded equal access to power, fair elections and democratic reforms. After the opposition protests, representatives of the power brought their supporters to another square 'Ozodi'.

According to Human Rights Watch experts, one of important motives of the confrontation was the interregional tension related to the disproportional representation of natives of various regions of the country in central authorities.
Soon after that, armed clashes occurred between the protesters of two squares and a civil war started in the country, which led to full collapse of central authority, whose decisions were implemented only in Dushanbe.

The war escalated in summer, but Nabiev's supporters who united in the People's Front managed to seize Kurgan-Tyube (now Bokhtar), the administrative centre of Khatlon region, by means of tanks of the 201st Russian division in September.
On September 7, 1992, Rakhmon Nabiyev was forced by the opposition in the Dushanbe airport to write a letter of resignation. The head of the Supreme Soviet, Akbarsho Iskandarov, became the acting president instead of him.

Military actions continued and the agreement of both parties was reached in November to hold the 16th session of the Supreme Soviet in Khudzhand. At this session, 40-year-old Emomali Rakhmon was elected the chair of the Supreme Soviet of Tajikistan. He received the powers of the head of state. After that, Emomali Rakhmon managed to take control over the whole territory of Dushanbe and move the armed opposition abroad, mainly, to Afghanistan, by means of the military assistance of Russia and Uzbekistan. All opposition parties and media outlets were prohibited in June 1993 by rulings of the Supreme Court, while a range of opposition politicians were arrested.
The 1994 election and the end of the civil war
In November 1994, while the civil war was still on, Tajikistan held the presidential election, where Emomali Rakhmon won with 59.5 per cent of votes. The only alternative candidate at the election was Abdumalik Abdullodzhonov, ambassador of Tajikistan in Russia and ex-prime minister, who received 34.7 per cent of votes.

According to human rights activists, the administrative leverage was widely used during the election in favour of Emomali Rakhmon.

In 1995, parliamentary election was held. As a result, many leaders and field commanders of the People's Front joined the parliament. The 1995 parliament had a significant degree of autonomy from central power, and some deputies tried to play an independent role and even claimed the leadership.

President Emomali Rakhmon had to resolve several important domestic political issues to enhance his power. First, he needed to end the civil war, which declined significantly by 1994. The war that lasted for five years took lives of tens thousands of people. Many prominent people of the country, including scientists, public figures, journalists, have died. Tens thousands of citizens of Tajikistan fled the country in fear of physical reprisals.
After eight rounds of peace talks between the government of Tajikistan and the opposition, which were held for three years (1994-1997), the parties managed to reach an agreement through the intermediary of the UN and due to diplomatic efforts of Russia, Iran and Afghanistan.

On June 27, 1997, the government, President Emomali Rakhmon and leader of the Union of Opposition Powers Abdullo Nuri signed the 'General Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and National Accord in Tajikistan' in Moscow.


Photo: TASS


Based on the document, the National Reconciliation Commission was established. Representatives of the opposition, mainly, Islamic Renaissance Party, received 30 per cent of public offices. The amnesty was carried out for oppositionists, and opposition parties that used to be prohibited were legalised. Tens thousands of Tajik refugees returned to the country.

However, the agreement on peace could stabilise the situation only to some extent. By then, the relations between President Emomali Rakhmon and his allies from the People's Front became strained.

Back in January 1996, Makhmud Khudoberdyev, the influential commander of the People's Front, delivered the ultimatum to the central power and threatened to invade Dushanbe. Authorities eventually managed to force him out to Uzbekistan, but in November 1998, Makhmud Khudoberdyev committed a large-scale invasion to the north of Tajikistan. Fighters of the former opposition took place in the subjection of the rebellion.

In August 1997, after armed clashes in Dushanbe, another influential figure of the People's Front, ex-minister of interior affairs Yakub Salimov was neutralised. He left the country, but he was arrested and convicted afterwards. Applying the carrot and the stick approach, the central power managed to disarm or even destroy the armed opposition – both new and old – by early 2000s. Thus, the 'man with a gun' factor was minimised.

In November 1999, President Emomali Rakhmon won the presidential election with 97.6 per cent of votes, almost with no challengers. Davlat Usmon, an opposition candidate of IRPT, could not even gather 145,000 signatures necessary for registration.

Previously, the country held a referendum on amendments to the Constitution, which increased the presidential term of office from five to seven years (the president could be elected for one term only). Also, a two-chamber parliament was established and headed by ex-mayor of Dushanbe Makhmadsaid Ubaidulloev, and registration of religious political parties was allowed.

By results of the 2000 election, militants could not make it to the Madzhlisi Namoyandagon, the lower house of parliament. The parliament was already under full control of President Emomali Rakhmon and only two deputies from the recently legalised opposition Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan could make it to the parliament. According to Tajikistan-based journalist Radzhab Mirzo, the 2000 parliamentary election actually meant the defeat of the opposition as no prominent secular oppositionist could become a deputy.

"In fact, the examination of political forces began during the 1999 presidential election. The government then realised that opposition forces could not build the real coalition due to serious contradictions regarding a range of political issues (attitude to secularism and religion) and division of power," said Radzhab Mirzo meaning that members of IRPT received public posts under the 30 per cent quota. The central authority managed to consolidate their position in the regions, although local informal leaders, who competed with central power, maintained their influence locally, especially in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region.
Were the 2000s the golden period of the Tajik pluralism and freedom of speech?
The beginning of the 2000s can be called the time of comparative rise of political pluralism and freedom of speech in Tajikistan. In early 2000s, many independent media outlets appeared in the country, and opposition political parties were established.

Some parties had comparatively popular print media outlets. Several parties were really independent – oldest Democratic Party and IRPT. The Social-Democratic Party of Tajikistan (SDPT) was registered in 2002. It was led by a prominent Tajik lawyer and human rights activist Rakhmatillo Zoyirov.

Unique courageous publications, which criticised the chief executives of the country, were published in the press. Public events, where representatives of various parties expressed their opinions on the national development and criticised the powers openly, were held then.
But pluralism existed only in print media. TV and radio channels of the republic with the largest audience among other local media were still under control of authorities. However, the situation in print media deteriorated dramatically in 2004, just before the parliamentary election.

The state actually suspended the process of registration of new newspapers. A range of unwanted outlets, including independent newspapers 'Ruza nav', 'Nerui Sukhan', 'Odamu Olam', newspapers of the Democratic Party 'Adolat' and of IRPT 'Nadzhot' could not print their issues because of the refusal of printing houses. Meanwhile, authorities began to use governmental outlets actively to discredit opposition politicians and journalists.

It was approximately during those years when a network of anonymous authors was actively used. They published 'revelatory' materials on the internet. Usually, it was the reaction of authorities to given publications in the media. Afterwards, Tajik journalists called the network 'a farm of answers'.
According to official results of the parliamentary election as of February 27, 2005, the People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan led by President Emomali Rakhmonov won the election by majority of votes (41 out of 63 seats). Only two opposition deputies of the IRPT could make it to the parliament. According to the OSCE, the election failed to meet many key international standards on democratic elections. Despite pressure on the media and human rights activists, authorities did not use retaliatory measures against politicians and public figures those years. The 2006 presidential election was not a big challenge for authorities. The leaders of the parties subordinated to authorities were formal challengers to the incumbent president. The real opposition parties – IRPT, Democratic Party, Social-Democratic Party – boycotted the election saying their outcome was foregone. As a result, Emomali Rakhmon received 79.3 per cent of votes.

After the election, authorities reduced pressure on the media. But the sector could not recover in full.
Strengthening of Emomali Rakhmon's positions in the regions
After a cycle of election events, President Emomali Rakhmon continued to strengthen his influence in the regions.

At the end of May 2008, Tajik special forces stormed the house of Sukhrob Langariev, a representative of the Langariev family, a very influential family in the region, at Kulyab. Among the detained there were Sukhrob Langariev and Nurmakhmad Safarov, son of Sangak Safarov, a deceased leader of the People's Front. Sukhrob Langariev was sentenced for life in 2009 on a charge of organising a drug cartel, illegal keeping of weapon, and other grave crimes.

Former companions of President Emomali Rakhmon were also eliminated from power. According to experts, they were too independent and could show their own ambitions.

The life of Makhmadnazar Salikhov, former Prosecutor General of Tajikistan (from November 1992 to November 1995), can serve as an example. In different periods of his career, he held posts in law enforcement bodies of Tajikistan, and was twice a chief of the executive office of the president. In 2006-2009, Salikhov held the post of minister of interior affairs. However, he did not receive any other post after his resignation, and in June 2009 he died during detention. According to the official version, Salikhov shot himself.

One month later, in July 2009, the other influential leader, Mirzo Zieyev, ex-commander of the opposition and ex-head of the ministry of emergency situations (1996-2006), who was appointed under the 30 per cent quota, died as a result of another operation by Tajik special forces. In 2009-2011, authorities executed several military operations in Rasht district, and took full control of it.

After all these operations, the only region, where informal leaders still maintained their influence, was Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. Authorities managed to neutralise the influence of dissenters there only in May 2022 following the military operation in GBAR.
Prohibition of IRPT and unlimited power
In the beginning of 2012, Russian online news outlets published news on the governmental session of November 2011, where the 'protocol 32-20' was approved. The protocol allegedly ordered Tajik special forces to put pressure on the IRPT. The Prosecutor General's Office of Tajikistan confirmed discussion of the protocol '32-20' at one of the government sessions with participation of Emomali Rakhmon, but disproved the contents of the document.

Nevertheless, authorities launched the open campaign on prohibition of the IRPT during the 2013 presidential election. The first call for the IRPT closure was made in 2013 at a meeting of President Emomali Rakhmon with religious figures. Offices of the IRPT were destroyed in several locations and criminal cases were initiated against the party activists.

The despicable morality of the IRPT members was often discussed on government TV channels. These materials were reproduced by numerous bots and trolls on the internet, which were a part of the said 'farm of answers'.

The only intrigue of the 2013 election was the nomination of prominent Tajik human rights defender Oinikhol Bobonazarova as the single candidate of two really opposition parties, IRPT and Social-Democratic Party. However, she failed to collect the signatures required for the registration. Oppositionists said that people refused to sign in fear of punitive measures.

Therefore, these two parties again announced boycott of the election and President Emomali Rakhmon won the election with the official result of 83.92 per cent of votes.

According to observers of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, the election "lacked pluralism and genuine choice among voters and did not fully correspond to the standards for democratic elections."

In 2015, the IRPT lost representation in the parliament following the March parliamentary election. The leader of IRPT, Mukhiddin Kabiri left the country after the election.

In September 2015, authorities said that they suppressed the attempted coup by the ex-deputy minister of defence, General Abdykhalim Nazarzoda. According to official media, the coup was organised by the IRPT. Tens of IRPT members and activists were arrested and sentenced to long terms in prison.

Tens of journalists and human rights activists left the country in the meantime. Several independent media outlets and human rights organisations ceased their activities.

A new wave of purges against media and bloggers occurred in 2022. At least 7 active Tajik journalists and bloggers were arrested and sentenced to 7 to 10 years in prison within a year for 'cooperation with prohibited parties and movements' in Tajikistan. Neither statements of international organisations, nor personal appeals to Emomali Rakhmon helped reverse the verdicts.
Evolution of the regime
The first years of Emomali Rakhmon's rule were during the civil war. Therefore, it is quite explainable that the emphasis was made on strong-arm methods during those years.

As the situation stabilised and the civil war ended, the country faced some liberalisation. The self-censorship level of the media was minimal for some time, and the rudiments of civil society emerged in the country. A range of significant social problems were freely discussed in the society.

However, these processes had little influence on the essence of power. It has always been authoritarian. In the first years of rule, Emomali Rakhmon sometimes had to come to compromise with political opponents, and had to listen to the opinion of his team. The situation has changed over time. Independent people were ejected from power.

Thus, the power of President Emomali Rakhmon in the country became almost unlimited by the mid-2010s. The 'loyalty over competence' principle became the most important in the staff policy of Tajikistan.

Previously, President Rakhmon put an emphasis on his ex-companions in the People's Front in his staff policy, but since then he began to appoint his closest relatives to key offices.
Emomali Rahmon with his son Rustam Emomali. Photo: press service of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan
In January 2016, Emomali Rakhmon appointed his daughter Ozoda as the head of his executive office. The president's son, Rustam Emomali, was appointed the mayor of Dushanbe in 2017, and became the speaker of Madzhlisi Milli, the upper house of parliament of Tajikistan, in April 2020. According to the Constitution, this was the second highest office in the country. This gave reason to say that Emomali Rakhmon considered Rustam as his successor.

The authorities of Tajikistan have officially declared the multi-vector principle in foreign policy. In reality, Dushanbe's key partner has been Moscow for many years. Recent years gave reason to tell that the relations with China became the key priority for authorities of Tajikistan. Another important partner of Dushanbe is Iran, although relations with it have been complicated – from allied to openly hostile.
author
CABAR.asia
editors:
Marat Mamadshoev
Natalia Lee
layout:
Natalia Lee

© 2023