After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan, just like many Central Asian states, failed to follow the path of liberal democratic reforms, and started to adjust the system of government to the interests of its political elites.

"Since 1995, after the adoption of the second Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the republic has become the super-presidential republic. Before that period, Nazarbayev had felt some euphoria of democratisation as he was an active liberal politician. Thereafter, he realised that a strong parliament was the obstacle to his plans of the statehood development and downgraded its status," Almaty-based political analyst Sofya du Boulay said to CABAR.asia.

She has written a PhD thesis on development of the authoritarianism in the states of Central Asia and South Caucasus and studied the main signs of the political regime. Since the end of the 90s, according to Sofya du Boulay, the authoritarianism began to form in Kazakhstan. Back then, Nursultan Nazarbayev came in the centre of the political system, and only one political party, 'Nur Otan', supporting the presidency, dominated in the country. The judicial branch was also subordinated to the head of the state. Since the mid of the 2000s, there was no political competition due to the elimination of the opposition. Nazarbayev acquired the status of Yelbasy, which granted him not only a range of privileges and immunity of his family members, but also enshrined the personality cult both in the law and symbolically.

The timeline below shows all the amendments to the Constitution and other laws of Kazakhstan, which were passed in favour of the president and consolidation of his power. To that end, a requirement regarding the age of the head of state – until the age of 65 – was removed from the basic law of the country, and an exception regarding the number of presidential terms was introduced specifically for Nursultan Nazarbayev; the leader of the state was entitled to schedule snap elections.

In 2009, independent media outlets first mentioned the project 'SuperKhan'. It is the people's name of the concept document, which contributed to the gradual development of the personality cult of Nazarbayev. According to Irina Petrushova, founder and editor-in-chief of 'Respublika' portal, their office received the plan in 2009, and its implementation was in full swing. The status of the 'leader of the nation' was designed in the plan.

"The point of the 'SuperKhan' plan was formulated by developers as follows: 'The 'Khan' project is about retaining the power, while the 'SuperKhan' project is about regaining control over the country after resignation'. The project was developed, according to our insider information, by a team of experts led by the U.S. citizen of Bulgarian origin Alexander Mirtchev. He is known in Kazakhstan as a former chair of the Board of Directors of the state holding 'Kazyna', independent director of 'Samruk-Kazyna' Fund," Irina Petrushova said.

The key ideology of the document, which was drafted for a narrow circle of officials, according to her, was to make Nazarbayev a kind of a power broker for life, and to write his name in history books as the leader of the nation and the founder of the statehood.

"It didn't work out, he will be written in history, but with failures. The project was definitely a success for the Nazarbayev's family in terms of the future as it made all his family members very rich and allowed them to legitimise their wealth without being punished for what they have done to the country. The project succeeded at some point, and failed at another point," editor-in-chief of 'Respublika' said.

The editorial office of CABAR.asia has asked Nursultan Nazarbayev's press secretary to give a comment on the 'SuperKhan' project, but received no reply.

The history of elections in Kazakhstan follows the general authoritarian line of administration. All six presidential elections in the Republic of Kazakhstan were snap elections and offered no alternatives. They were usually scheduled one year before the end of the presidential term.

Only communist Serikbolsyn Abdildin and former prime minister of the country Akezhan Kazhegeldin can be deemed as political opponents, who could be real competitors to Nursultan Nazarbayev at the end of the 90s.

The latter wanted to take part in the 1990 election, but he was not admitted to it because he was found guilty of a minor administrative offence. Later on, a criminal case was initiated against the disgraced politician on a charge of corruption, and he fled the country. The official was placed on the international wanted list.

In 2002, Kazhegeldin received a 'passport of freedom' (a symbolic sign of support to people subjected to persecution for their political views – Editor's note) from the members of the European parliament. Europe admitted that the former prime minister of Kazakhstan was persecuted on political grounds. Because of the case of Akezhan Kazhegeldin, OSCE refused to send its observers to the 1999 election. And the organisation declared the election as non-compliant with the international standards by default.

Abdildin won almost 12 per cent of votes, which was not enough to compete with the electoral support of Nazarbayev, namely 79.8 per cent.

Oppositionists and dissidents criticising the existing political regime have either left the country or been on the trial, in a prison, or mental hospital (Mukhtar Ablyazov, Zhanbolat Mamai, Zinaida Mukhortova, Aidos Sadykov, and others). The Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and the Rule of Law has published over 35 cases of politically motivated persecutions in the Republic of Kazakhstan.

The transfer of power to Speaker of the Senate of Parliament Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in 2019 almost totally changed the political agenda. Previously, media outlets had suggested that Nursultan Nazarbayev's daughter, Dariga, would possibly be a candidate for the highest office. Why was Tokayev chosen to be the successor?

"It was a mixture of various factors. First, Nazarbayev did not see any threat in him to his personal power. Second, despite the fact that Tokayev has held various offices, he could never create his client network, or expand his influence throughout his career. His inactivity, and sometimes even commonness and lack of ambitions have made him a front-runner as a formal president," political analyst Dimash Alzhanov said.

As to the successor out of the 'family', this option, according to the political analyst, has been taken into account, but seemed unlikely due to a high level of conflicts between the elites and public fatigue from Nazarbayev. In fact, the Nazarbayev family has never been monolithic. It has been a circle of people with different views and often conflicting with each other when promoting their commercial and political interests.

"The long-term rule of Nursultan Nazarbayev and guarantees he has bestowed upon his family members have caused a high level of destabilisation of interests and discontent among the elites, including the inner circle, who could not tell him about it because of their vulnerability. Now we can see that some part of the elites, which did not have enough access to resources, has easily readjusted and formed a base loyal to Tokayev," the political analyst said.

The transfer of power to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has given hope for democratic elections to many politicians. In June 2019, six more candidates in addition to the ex-chair of the Senate took part in the presidential race. A member of the opposition, Amirzhan Kosanov, received 16.2 per cent of votes, which is a record for the president's opponents. However, it was not enough for the second round. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev won by majority of votes (70.9 per cent).

The election did not go smoothly. Astana, Almaty, Shymkent reported protest actions, over a thousand of peaceful protesters were arrested. Cases of those who 'took part in unauthorised assemblies', and actually expressed their disagreement with the election results were heard at offsite court sessions, and sometimes took place at night in police stations without a lawyer present.

The UN has called on the Kazakh government to respect freedoms of peaceful assembly and expression. Mr Ryszard Komenda, Head of the UN Human Rights Office for Central Asia, said that actions against peaceful protesters are the violation of Kazakhstan's obligations under international human rights law.

"The year of 2019 was the impetus for the society – great expectations and discontent that had accumulated for years began to gradually leak to the public space. Minor protest actions and demonstrations have become frequent and created the demand for the change of the regime. It was difficult to stop the spontaneous bottom-up mobilisation and it all gradually contributed to the January events. The mobilisation experience, which the society acquired since 2019, allowed it to express its position more actively during the January 2022 protests," said Dimash Alzhanov.

The break for the pandemic did not quiet down the domestic unrest, but aggravated, and they eventually turned into mass protest actions. The so-called 'Bloody kantar' (in Kazakh kantar means January) with the slogan 'Shal, ket!' (in Kazakh, 'Old man, get out!') was the turning point in the monopolisation of power by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

"What happened in January 2022 showed us that the loyal circle of Nazarbayev left and it was uncomfortable for Tokayev to be a formal president of Kazakhstan without having the real power. Most probably, there was certain confrontation between the two clans of Tokayev and Nazarbayev. The second one lost and now it's the post-Nazarbayev reorganisation," Sofya du Boulay said.

According to the speaker, promises of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to solve the socio-economic problems declared by the society during the January protests were hasty and populist. The then declared programme "Zhana Kazakhstan" (from Kazakh – "New Kazakhstan") did not have any fundamentally new proposals, or serious economic changes. However, it should be pointed out that the geopolitical crisis after the commencement of the military operation of Russia in Ukraine and the coronavirus pandemic had a strong impact on the situation.

According to Dimash Alzhanov, the 2022 political crisis that followed the Kremlin's support and violent suppression of protests has led to the full political rise of Tokayev. Public attempts to promote the idea of adoption of the new Constitution, to amend basic laws and to ensure the democratic change have failed.

'Crack down on' and sweeping purge of any opposition's attacks have become rather tough actions by authorities that followed the protests. This is confirmed by numerous torture stories of protesters in pre-trial detention centres, detentions of activists, journalists and bloggers. According to the joint report of Kazakhstan NGOs for the session of the UN Committee against Torture, nearly 10 thousand Kazakhstanis have been detained in connection with the January events in the Republic of Kazakhstan. According to the survey of the victims, over 70 per cent of respondents declared torture, traumas and other facts of ill-treatment. Trials of protesters are still on.

Dimash Alzhanov in his article about the referendum results wrote:

"Kassym-Jomart Tokayev issued a decree on holding a referendum and left only one month to the citizens to learn about 35 amendments in 33 articles of the Constitution. The amendments lacked political content despite the president's promises to reduce his powers, balance the political system and empower the parliament. Tokayev used the referendum to get public support, increase his legitimacy and calm down the protesters. We see the repeated establishment of the personalistic authoritarian regime, but now led by the second president instead of the first one. It leaves little chance to the democratic transition in the short or mid-term perspective."

The early election of autumn 2022 resulted in the victory of the incumbent president. According to Urszula Gacek head of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, the election was held in the political environment that lacked competition. In fact, there were five candidates among the opponents of Tokayev who did not have enough political experience or public support.

Political analyst Sofya du Boulay focused on the 'endurance' of authoritarian regimes, which have many leverages of power extension. As a matter of fact, Tokayev is the part of the old regime, the direct successor of the authoritarian leader. So, it would be naïve to expect radical democratic changes from the second president, who came to power after the unequal election.

"The law that is the most important for the second president concerns the return of the illegally withdrawn capital and assets. It speaks of the major redistribution in the economy. Now, Tokayev will be expanding his presence in the economy at most using his absolute power inherited from Nazarbayev. Particular sectors might be left to old elites due to agreements, but his nephews are likely to be principal agents representing his interests. Control over the political system and constitutional provisions make it possible," Dimash Alzhanov said.

The Interviewed political analysts have confirmed the hypothesis that the society of Kazakhstan wants to have a politician of a different system, other than an autocrat. The loyal attitude of citizens to particular officials support this statement. The other point is whether such leaders can come to power in the authoritarian system, if they do not belong to it? As part of her PhD, Sofya du Boulay conducted a research and found out that there are such examples of modern politicians who could be candidates for presidency in the country. They are young ambitious executives.

According to the current Constitution, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will be in power until 2029. However, given the fact that the national basic law has been often revised at the request of presidents, political analysts do not rule out that by the end of the decade Kazakhstan will hold another constitutional reform. Further scenarios will depend on whether the incumbent leader will remain, or the power will be handed over to a new successor, or the country will have really democratic election.