Successor in Soviet and Eastern style
turkmenistan
cabar.asia
A golden statue of the first president of Turkmenistan, Saparmurat Niyazov, that rotates so that Niyazov always faces the sun, was restored in 2011. It came back to Ashgabat after the second president of the country, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, removed it in 2010. In fact, the statue was returned to the outskirts of Ashgabat. Previously, it stood on the top of the Neutrality Arch since 1998, not far from the presidential palace.

The adventure of the golden statue of the Turkmenbashi (from Turkmen, father of all Turkmens) is the exact metaphor describing the political life of Turkmenistan. Presidents can change in the country and even cast doubts on their predecessors, but each one would take the beaten path being guided by the same 'sun', i.e. authoritarianism.

Founding father
Serdar (from Turkmen, chieftain) and eternally great Saparmurat Turkmenbashi began his political career in 1959 as the instructor of the trade union Saparmurat Niyazov. From 1985 to 1991, he held office of the first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Turkmen SSR, i.e. he was the head of the republic for six years during the Soviet government.

On October 11, 1990, the Supreme Soviet (parliament) of Turkmen SSR resolved to make the presidential republic. On October 27, 1990, Saparmurat Niyazov became the head of state during the first presidential election. He had no challengers in the 'election race', and Niyazov received 98.3 per cent of votes.

On December 27, 1991, Turkmenistan declared independence, and in May 1992, a new constitution was approved. After that, the presidential election with the only candidate, Saparmurat Niyazov, was held. He was supported by 99.5 per cent of voters.

Золотая статуя Сапармурата Ниязова. Архивное фото
According to the constitution, the next presidential election had to take place in five years, i.e. in 1997. However, the Democratic Party of Turkmenistan, established by Niyazov on the remnants of the Communist Party of Turkmen SSR and led by him, offered to extend the term of presidential office until 2002. This question was put to the nationwide referendum. 99.9 per cent of voters voted in favour of it. (Please note that the leader of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, used the same method in 1995, i.e. extension of the term of presidential office via the referendum).

However, Niyazov did not wait for the 2002 election and again took the lead. On December 28, 1999, the representative body of Turkmenistan, Khalk Maslakhaty, led by the head of state, vested exceptional powers in Niyazov being the first president: he could remain in office for as long as he wished. The law was endorsed by the Medzhlis (legislative body), whose deputies were part of the Khalk Maslakhaty. The initiative of the Khalk Maslakhaty was explained by the fact that it reflected the "desires and aspirations of people."

In August 8, 2002, the Khalk Maslakhaty decided to make Niyazov president for life. But Niyazov rejected the offer and promised to come back to the election topic in 2008.

The decision of Niyazov to remain president for several more years perhaps provoked the events of November 25, 2002. On that day, according to the official version, Niyazov was attacked. Human rights activists then said that the attack was staged to compromise the opposition in the eyes of the global community, and to relate it to the international terrorism.

It is difficult to check which version of the 'November 25 case' was true, but what happened helped neutralise the opposition, which wanted the change of authority in the country.

However, Niyazov also thought about his resignation, at least, he said so. In October 2005, Niyazov offered to hold the presidential election in 2009. He explained his offer like this, "There should be nothing eternal. The destiny of people and the state should not depend on one person."

Khalk Maslakhaty refused to consider the question of holding presidential election in 2009. Then, Niyazov offered to revisit this question at the end of 2009. But he failed to: Niyazov died of a sudden cardiac arrest in December 2006.

Foreign media published materials regarding the 'death of Turkmenbashi', where they mentioned his eccentric decision, like a ban on opera and ballet, which were "alien to the Turkmen culture', renaming of months and days of week, as well as titles like 'head of all Turkmens', and 'the most modest'.

But the key result of Niyazov's political activity was the emergence of the one-man rule institution in Turkmenistan. It meant that the widest powers would be automatically vested in anyone becoming a president.

In 2006, some experts thought the power would be passed by inheritance to Niyazov's son, Murad, as was usual in the east. Others proposed to forecast based on Soviet signs. The unspoken Soviet rule was that the successor was the head of the funeral committee – so, the 'head of the ceremony' was in focus.

Vice-prime minister of the republic Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov was in charge of Niyazov's funeral.
Saparmurat Niyazov (on the left) and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov (on the right). Photo courtesy
Repetition of the past
According to the constitution of Turkmenistan, if the president is unable to perform his/her duties, his/her powers pass to the chair of Medzhlis until the new head of state is elected. Back then, the parliament was headed by Ovezgeldy Atayev. But the State Security Council and the government did not appoint Atayev to that post because the Prosecutor General's Office initiated a criminal case against him. Atayev was detained, and Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov was appointed as acting president.

The modifier 'acting' caused damage to Berdymukhamedov as the constitution prohibited the acting president to run for president. The basic law was amended and this clause was removed. Berdymukhamedov signed the law on amendments.

Meanwhile, the Khalk Maslakhaty set the presidential election for February 2007 and approved of the six candidates, including Berdymukhamedov. He won the race and received, according to the Central Election Commission, 89.23 per cent of votes. The new president headed the government and the State Security Council.

After the change of the president, some people in the country hoped for the changes. Optimists indicated that Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov cancelled Niyazov's order, which reduced the number of schooling years from ten to nine. He also cancelled the mandatory study of Niyazov's book 'Rukhnama'. The country returned the traditional calendar, and the name of the ex-president was removed from the oath given upon acceptance for employment, to school and university, and from the anthem.

In 2008, Berdymukhamedov eliminated the Khalk Maslakhaty, which was composed of the parliament and the government. In other words, the Khalk Maslakhaty had a higher status that other branches of government, which breaches the principle of the separation of powers. The deliberative body, the Council of Elders, emerged at the president.

However, a new title, Arkadag (from Turkmen, protector), was assigned to the second president of Turkmenistan in 2010. News leaked out from the isolated country that people kissed the president's hand at meetings, kneeled before him, minted gold coins with his image on them. Portraits of Niyazov were replaced by Berdymukhamedov's portraits across the country. He was listed as one of the worst dictators of the world by The Foreign Policy.
The Arkadag monument is a monument to Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov in Ashgabat. Photo: orient.tm
In 2012, Berdymukhamedov was re-elected for a second term and received 97.14 per cent of votes. His challengers received a negligible amount of votes.

In 2016, the Constitution was amended again. The term of presidential office was increased from five to seven years, and the age limit of 70 years old was removed for candidates. After the basic law was amended, Berdymukhamedov again participated and won in the election and received 94.27 per cent in 2017. This victory gave him an opportunity to remain the president until 2024. However, Berdymukhamedov did not use this opportunity.
Successor through election
At the end of 2019, Berdymukhamedov launched the constitutional reform, which turned the parliament in Turkmenistan into a tw0-chamber parliament in January 2021. He established the upper house, which became the renewed Khalk Maslakhaty in 2017. The head of the Khalk Maslakhaty was the president himself. The Council of Elders became a part of the upper house (Senate). Just before it, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov had been elected the honourable elder statesman, and he became the senator for life.

Nurmukhammed Khanamov, head of the Turkmen Republican Party in exile, explained the point of this complicated political structure:

"The second president followed […] the example of Kazakhstan, which used the political combination of the transfer of power with the division between the president and the leader of the nation (the special title assigned to the then head of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev – Editor's note), who heads the Security Council, the ruling party, and his daughter heads the Senate of Parliament. I believe the president of Turkmenistan looks at Kazakhstan and makes a two-chamber parliament with a view to the future."

According to the forecast of Khanamov, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov was going to include special forces into the upper house and thus create a kind of a security council.

"He is still the head of the ruling Democratic Party. Then he will appoint someone to the president's office to shift all state, economic duties on, and he will remain in the honorary post while controlling the president in his discretion," Khanamov depicted the future and was right about it.
'Someone' turned out to be Serdar, son of Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. In February 2021, the president appointed his son as the vice prime minister. This office is considered in Turkmenistan as a launching pad into the president's office. The country does not have the post of a prime minister as the president heads the government, so the post of a vice prime minster is the second important post in the chain of authority. Berdymukhamedov Sr. took the same path. He was vice prime minister and became the president after Niyazov's death.

Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov (on the left) and his son Serdar (on the right). Photo: tdh.gov.tm
The sudden career rise of Serdar along with the constitutional reform could mean only one thing – Berdymukhamedov was preparing for the transfer of power. This preparation became obvious on February 11, 2022: Berdymukhamedov said that he wanted to give way to younger executives in the state administration. The Central Election Commission set the early presidential election for March 12. Serdar Berdymukhamedov won the election with 72.97 per cent of votes and left other eight candidates far behind him. Right after Serdar was sworn in, his portraits replaced the portraits of the ex-president.
Transit reversed
Many economic tasks were thrown on Serdar Berdymukhamedov, he had to fight unemployment, low salaries, consequences of the pandemic and other problems of weak economy. The war…came to his rescue. Russia's invasion of Ukraine provoked an unbelievable rise in prices of gas, which Turkmenistan lives on. Moreover, China, the key foreign trade partner of the republic, began to open after the pandemic, and revenue from gas export to the Chinese market (which equals to the country's total export) jumped by 51 per cent in 2022.

Amid the anti-Russian sanctions, price rallies on energy markets, Turkmenistan, rich in gas and having a good logistic potential, became the object of 'care' from both Russia and China, and from European countries. Serdar Berdymukhamedov inevitably came to play important role in the foreign political activity of Turkmenistan.

"This scenario was not part of the father's plans," said Galiya Ibragimova, expert in Central Asian and Eastern European states. "Leaving the presidential office, he counted on shifting all the boring work in domestic policy and other routine to discuss key issues with main partners [of Turkmenistan]."

According to Ibragimova, the father was annoyed by the son's behaviour in the country. Especially, relations with influential relatives. Serdar forced father's nephews out of the country, who, according to journalistic investigations, controlled particular economic sectors in the country. After that, Serdar tackled the problem with his father's sisters.
Berdymukhamedov did not intervene for some time, but soon the scopes of events became threatening to his own position, and the stability of the regime. The final straw was Serdar's attempt to clean up the security forces.
Galiya Ibragimova, expert in Central Asian and Eastern European states
After that, Berdymukhamedov Sr. launched the constitutional reform meant to take control of power again. In January 2023, the ex-president proposed to eliminate the two-chamber parliament and renew the Khalk Maslakhaty, which would be the superstructure over all branches of government – legislative, executive and judicial.

The reform was carried out in ten days. The renewed Khalk Maslakhaty was headed by Berdymukhamedov Sr. Meanwhile, the constitutional law "On declaring Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov as the national leader of the Turkmen people" was passed. The new document entitled Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov to permanent membership in the Khalk Maslakhaty, guaranteed the ex-president and his family members the right to immunity.

According to the new law, if the chair of Khalk Maslakhaty fails to perform their duties, their powers shall pass to the president. If the president fails to perform their duties, their powers shall pass to the head of Khalk Maslakhaty. Both offices are held now by the Berdymukhamedovs, father and son

Now the portrait of the chair of Khalk Maslakhaty, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, is placed next to the portrait of President Serdar Berdymukhamedov in the country. In fact, Turkmenistan has the diarchy now.
Author:
CABAR.asia
editors:
Tatiana Trubacheva
Natalia Lee
layout:
Natalia Lee

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