Kazakhstan: Abnormal heat-wave
Experts note sustainable increase of average annual and seasonal temperatures in Kazakhstan.
This summer, temperature records have been updated at several weather stations of Kazakhstan, according to Kazgidromet. Western Kazakhstan region recorded the highest temperature +45.5 degrees Celsius on June 29.
The average decade temperature of the air in June was above normal by 1 to 7 degrees Celsius. The abnormal hot weather, according to Kazgidromet Research Centre, was due to the influence of the warm sector of the South Cyclone and the efflux of warm air masses from the Persian Gulf.
The average decade temperature of the air in June was above normal by 1 to 7 degrees Celsius. The abnormal hot weather, according to Kazgidromet Research Centre, was due to the influence of the warm sector of the South Cyclone and the efflux of warm air masses from the Persian Gulf.
Very hot days were recorded in Southern Kazakhstan – the temperature here reached 35…+42 °С. The temperature extremes were updated at several weather stations. The temperature of air was within normal in the north and far west of the country because on some days cold air masses came from Scandinavia. The average monthly temperature in summer has risen 1.65 ºС for the century in Nur-Sultan.
According to the Annual Bulletin of Monitoring of Climate Condition and Change in Kazakhstan, the rise in the average annual temperature of the air is 0.31 ºС every 10 years in the country in the period of 1976-2019. The average annual temperature of the air in the last decade of 2010-2019 was +6.69 °С and exceeded the normal by 0.95 °C – this is the second positive abnormality in the decade following the record-warm decade of 2000-2009.
On a global scale, all extremely warm years fall on the last 20 years. In Kazakhstan, this peculiarity is well seen, but 1983, which is the second warmest year, and 1995, which is among top ten warmest years. However, the warmest year is 2013 with abnormal elevation of 1.89 °С.
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According to Dana Yermalyonok, senior advisor, CRED programme of the German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ), long-term climatic models predict significant rise in temperature by the end of 21st century globally due to the climate change. Temperature extremes will be getting more frequent, longer, and intense. According to some scenarios, in most of the regions records of hottest in 20 years day will be updated once in two years.
According to her, in 1961-2020 the number of days with temperature exceeding 35°C and nights with temperature above 20°C were steadily increasing. This is especially seen in the south, southwest and west of Kazakhstan. The total length of heat-waves is increasing and the total length of cold waves is decreasing everywhere. The number of days with average daily temperature above 10°C is steadily increasing.
According to her, in 1961-2020 the number of days with temperature exceeding 35°C and nights with temperature above 20°C were steadily increasing. This is especially seen in the south, southwest and west of Kazakhstan. The total length of heat-waves is increasing and the total length of cold waves is decreasing everywhere. The number of days with average daily temperature above 10°C is steadily increasing.
Photo: AFP
Surviving the heat
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Kazakhstanis survive as best as they can in such hot weather. Teacher Karina Nugumanova said that the school administration creates comfortable conditions for students in such a hot weather.
"In May, when it was hot, we moved classes from the 3rd floor to lower floors because it was unbearably hot on the 3rd floor. Also, we held consultations on lower floors. We could not do otherwise," she said.
Journalist Yekaterina Mostovaya is a native of Nur-Sultan and she is used to cool and icy air. The woman cannot stand the heat.
"Hot weather means absolute oxygen deficit, and my brain refuses to work. When it's hot, I feel bad, I feel weak, my head aches. I don't know the reason, but I have had such problems for a long time," she said.
She has developed some habits for a certain time that help her overcome hot weather. For example, she uses air humidifier in summer and tries to drink as much water as she can.
"Sometimes, I drink hot tea and it helps me. Also, I can easily have cold shower and it keeps me awake. When I worked at the office, we had an air conditioner there. Now I am working in a medical institution and it's well ventilated," Yekaterina Mostovaya said.
"In May, when it was hot, we moved classes from the 3rd floor to lower floors because it was unbearably hot on the 3rd floor. Also, we held consultations on lower floors. We could not do otherwise," she said.
Journalist Yekaterina Mostovaya is a native of Nur-Sultan and she is used to cool and icy air. The woman cannot stand the heat.
"Hot weather means absolute oxygen deficit, and my brain refuses to work. When it's hot, I feel bad, I feel weak, my head aches. I don't know the reason, but I have had such problems for a long time," she said.
She has developed some habits for a certain time that help her overcome hot weather. For example, she uses air humidifier in summer and tries to drink as much water as she can.
"Sometimes, I drink hot tea and it helps me. Also, I can easily have cold shower and it keeps me awake. When I worked at the office, we had an air conditioner there. Now I am working in a medical institution and it's well ventilated," Yekaterina Mostovaya said.
Global warming
Since 1993, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in cooperation with national meteorological and hydrologic services and other research centres publishes annual reports on the state of the global climate. According to the WMO report on the state of the global climate, global warming has reached its record levels as a result of long-term global temperature rise (caused mainly by greenhouse gas emissions as a result of human activity) in combination with the consequences of El Nino.
El Nino means fluctuations in temperature of the upper layer of water in equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean that have effect on the climate.
The climate gets warmer almost in every corner of the world. But these changes are characterised not only by temperature rises of the ground air. The usual mode of air mass movements changes, as well. Often, it leads to more changes in weather and climate, and to unusual weather phenomena in the region.
El Nino means fluctuations in temperature of the upper layer of water in equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean that have effect on the climate.
The climate gets warmer almost in every corner of the world. But these changes are characterised not only by temperature rises of the ground air. The usual mode of air mass movements changes, as well. Often, it leads to more changes in weather and climate, and to unusual weather phenomena in the region.
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"The climate of Kazakhstan is very sensitive to the global climate change. It has changed a lot in a few last decades. The territory of Kazakhstan located at the centre of the Eurasian continent and landlocked from the ocean (2-3 thousand kilometres) warms up at higher pace than the northern hemisphere and the globe, in average," Nurlan Abayev, director of Kazgidromet, said.
In the official reply to CABAR.asia, Kazgidromet emphasised main climate changes that took place in Kazakhstan in the last 70 years:
- Countrywide rise in air temperature all over Kazakhstan. In cold season (November-March), the rise in temperature is more significant than in warm season (April-October);
- Absolute daily maximum of air temperature increase;
- The number of hot days (more than 35°C) in western and southern regions of Kazakhstan increases;
- The duration of the vegetation period increases;
- The frequency of ice days tends to decrease;
- The precipitation amount in summer and autumn tends to decrease;
- The frequency of extreme precipitation in the south and southeast of Kazakhstan has increased insignificantly;
- Climatic zones tend to move towards north – deserts invade semi-deserts, semi-deserts invade prairies.
Dana Yermalyonok, in turn, said the climate varies naturally along with climate change. It means that every summer will not necessarily be as extremely hot as the previous one. The natural climate variability is caused by short-term phenomena taking place in the oceans and the atmosphere. It is represented in the form of annual fluctuations above and below the average values of temperature, precipitation level, and other climatic variables.
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"When we speak of the steady rise in temperature because of the climate change, we imply the average annual temperature. Nevertheless, our forecasts show with high degree of likelihood that the number of extremely hot days and generally extreme weather phenomena will be increasing," the expert said.
Authors
CABAR.asia
Editor
Natalia Lee
Design layout
Tolgonai Akimova
Slider photo
AFP
