Kazakhstan: Ambitious Plans
The experts believe that with the proper policy measures, financial support, and incentives for green business development, Kazakhstan can become carbon neutral by 2060.
By ratifying the Paris Agreement, Kazakhstan has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15% of 1990 levels by 2030, and by 25% if additional financial and technical assistance is received. According to the press service of the Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources, the assessment of Kazakhstan's obligations update demonstrated that achieving a 15% reduction of emissions by 2030 is a big challenge for Kazakhstan's economy, considering the prevailing amount of traditional energy sources (coal, natural gas, oil).
"Simultaneously, […] as part of the Low Carbon Development Strategy of Kazakhstan, we are assessing the scenario of carbon neutrality by 2060," the Ministry's press service replied to the official request by CABAR.asia journalist.
They also state that the Ministry has completed work on updating the Nationally Determined Contribution; a roadmap for measures to reduce emissions in the high-priority sectors of the economy has been developed within its framework.
In addition, the new Environmental Code entered into force in Kazakhstan on July 1, 2021. Kazakhstan introduced considerable changes in the new Code when compared with the 2007 Code. It covers several new provisions included in EU environmental legislation.
Part 18 of the new Environmental Code deals with the climate and the ozone layer of the atmosphere. It includes but is not limited to:
"Simultaneously, […] as part of the Low Carbon Development Strategy of Kazakhstan, we are assessing the scenario of carbon neutrality by 2060," the Ministry's press service replied to the official request by CABAR.asia journalist.
They also state that the Ministry has completed work on updating the Nationally Determined Contribution; a roadmap for measures to reduce emissions in the high-priority sectors of the economy has been developed within its framework.
In addition, the new Environmental Code entered into force in Kazakhstan on July 1, 2021. Kazakhstan introduced considerable changes in the new Code when compared with the 2007 Code. It covers several new provisions included in EU environmental legislation.
Part 18 of the new Environmental Code deals with the climate and the ozone layer of the atmosphere. It includes but is not limited to:
- Environmental Quality Target: to reduce the carbon balance by at least 15% compared to the 1990 carbon balance by 2030;
- Regulatory instruments on greenhouse gas emissions and removals (carbon budget, carbon allowances, and administration of installation operators);
- General requirements for climate change adaptation, including assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation planning.
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However, despite all the changes and targets, the Code does not specify the requirements for the development of policy instruments for mitigating climate change impacts and adaptation to climate change, according to Olga Melnichenko, Senior Expert on environmental law and policy of the European Union's WECOOP Project. This means that there are also no requirements for the development of a specific action plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the country's vulnerability.
"While the adaptation to climate change goes hand in hand with reducing the risk of natural hazards, there is no disaster risk reduction strategy in Kazakhstan that is aligned with the Sendai Framework," says Olga Melnichenko.
"While the adaptation to climate change goes hand in hand with reducing the risk of natural hazards, there is no disaster risk reduction strategy in Kazakhstan that is aligned with the Sendai Framework," says Olga Melnichenko.
* The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction was adopted at the Third UN World Conference in Sendai, Japan, on March 18, 2015. It is a non-legally binding voluntary agreement for 15 years designed to substantially reduce disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods, and health.
Water Scarcity Risk
This summer, several meteorological stations in Kazakhstan registered new temperature records. The highest temperature was recorded in the West Kazakhstan region on June 29 – 45.5°C. At the same time, in Nur-Sultan, the average monthly temperature in summer increased by 1.65°C in almost a century.
Read also: Abnormal Heat in Central Asia
The future climate prediction (by assessing the changes in air temperature and precipitation) was conducted under two scenarios of anthropogenic impact on the global climate system.
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"Under both scenarios, the average annual air temperature throughout Kazakhstan will continue to rise until the end of the 21st century. Moreover, in Northern Kazakhstan, the average annual air temperature will rise higher than in Southern.
At the end of the 21st century, in the northern regions of Kazakhstan, the temperature may rise by 2.8–3.2°C under the positive scenario, and by 4.7–5.4°C under the negative scenario, compared to the period of 1986– 2005," – says the Leading Expert of the WECOOP Project Anatoly Krutov.
Moreover, according to him, water flows will decrease by 10%-20% by 2020-2030 due to the intensive melting of glaciers. By 2050, Zhaiyk (Ural) river flow is expected to decrease by 2.2 cubic kilometres, Ertis (Irtysh) river – by 1.4 cubic kilometres, Esil river – by 1.1 cubic kilometres, and Tobol river – by 0.1 cubic kilometres.
According to the UN researchers, there is a risk of water scarcity in Kazakhstan, and by 2050, the country may face catastrophic water stress. This also implies potential conflicts over water at both the local and regional levels.
"The introduction of integrated water resources management at the local and regional levels will contribute to water conservation, strengthening interstate cooperation in the use of water and energy resources based on the principles of the unity of water resources management," Krutov said.
At the end of the 21st century, in the northern regions of Kazakhstan, the temperature may rise by 2.8–3.2°C under the positive scenario, and by 4.7–5.4°C under the negative scenario, compared to the period of 1986– 2005," – says the Leading Expert of the WECOOP Project Anatoly Krutov.
Moreover, according to him, water flows will decrease by 10%-20% by 2020-2030 due to the intensive melting of glaciers. By 2050, Zhaiyk (Ural) river flow is expected to decrease by 2.2 cubic kilometres, Ertis (Irtysh) river – by 1.4 cubic kilometres, Esil river – by 1.1 cubic kilometres, and Tobol river – by 0.1 cubic kilometres.
According to the UN researchers, there is a risk of water scarcity in Kazakhstan, and by 2050, the country may face catastrophic water stress. This also implies potential conflicts over water at both the local and regional levels.
"The introduction of integrated water resources management at the local and regional levels will contribute to water conservation, strengthening interstate cooperation in the use of water and energy resources based on the principles of the unity of water resources management," Krutov said.
Carbon-Free Energy
According to 2018 statistics, in total energy use, the share of renewable energy sources in Kazakhstan is insignificant (except hydropower), while the share of coal prevails.
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According to Vladislav Bizek, Key WECOOP Expert on EU Acquis and Environment Enforcement, this is a significant opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
"There are many energy-intensive industries in Kazakhstan, such as cement production, metal and chemicals industries, emissions of carbon dioxide and air pollutants (dust, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides); all of them pose a serious environmental threat," says Bizek.
"There are many energy-intensive industries in Kazakhstan, such as cement production, metal and chemicals industries, emissions of carbon dioxide and air pollutants (dust, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides); all of them pose a serious environmental threat," says Bizek.
Replying to the official CABAR.asia request, the press service of the Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources stated that within the framework of the Low Carbon Development Strategy of Kazakhstan and the implementation of the Deep Decarbonisation initiative, it was decided to phase out coal by 2050. Natural gas and renewable energy sources will replace coal. In turn, natural gas will become the primary energy source, covering about half of the total primary energy supply.
Moreover, in September 2021, President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev spoke about the nuclear power plant construction in Kazakhstan.
Moreover, in September 2021, President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev spoke about the nuclear power plant construction in Kazakhstan.
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"I believe the time has come to consider this issue in detail since Kazakhstan needs a nuclear power plant," Tokayev said.
However, nuclear energy development is not a question for the next 10 or even 20 years. The experts say that it can take up to 10 years just to develop and agree on a feasibility study of a nuclear power plant construction project, and even more – to construct and commission it.
The Low Carbon Development Strategy also includes the issues of carbon-based fuels and electric transport development.
"We are establishing a framework for further actions towards carbon neutrality by 2060. The designed concept considers the development of eco-friendly modes of transportation. This transition should be carried out in stages, taking into account the interests of society, business, and the capabilities of the state," the press service of the Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources stated.
The forest situation in Kazakhstan is the most favourable. Over the past 11 years, the area of the state forest fund in Kazakhstan has increased by 7% - from 28.4 to 30 million hectares. The total forested area increased by 8.3%.
"We are establishing a framework for further actions towards carbon neutrality by 2060. The designed concept considers the development of eco-friendly modes of transportation. This transition should be carried out in stages, taking into account the interests of society, business, and the capabilities of the state," the press service of the Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources stated.
The forest situation in Kazakhstan is the most favourable. Over the past 11 years, the area of the state forest fund in Kazakhstan has increased by 7% - from 28.4 to 30 million hectares. The total forested area increased by 8.3%.
In September 2021, speaking at the General Debate of the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly, President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev reaffirmed that Kazakhstan intended to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
"Next month, we will launch the National Low Carbon Development Strategy until 2050, aimed at reducing the energy intensity of GDP by 50% compared to 2008 levels," Tokayev said.
However, he added that the country's ambitious plans could not be implemented without additional funding.
The experts also note that Kazakhstan has to introduce the best available technologies to significantly reduce air and water pollution, waste generation, and greenhouse gas emissions.
Vladislav Bizek recommends the government support compliance with the program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15%. When developing state programs in vulnerable areas of public administration (water, agriculture, forestry, and civil protection), it is necessary to consider the impact of climate change and introduce measures to adapt to climate change.
"Next month, we will launch the National Low Carbon Development Strategy until 2050, aimed at reducing the energy intensity of GDP by 50% compared to 2008 levels," Tokayev said.
However, he added that the country's ambitious plans could not be implemented without additional funding.
The experts also note that Kazakhstan has to introduce the best available technologies to significantly reduce air and water pollution, waste generation, and greenhouse gas emissions.
Vladislav Bizek recommends the government support compliance with the program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15%. When developing state programs in vulnerable areas of public administration (water, agriculture, forestry, and civil protection), it is necessary to consider the impact of climate change and introduce measures to adapt to climate change.
Author:
Zulfiya Raisova
Editors:
Natalia Lee
Marat Mamadshoev
Marat Mamadshoev
Layout and design:
Tolgonai Akimova
This article was prepared as part of the Amplify, Verify, Engage: Information for Democratisation and Good Governance in Eurasia project implemented by IWPR and funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and mentoring program of the Development of New Media and Digital Journalism in Central Asia project implemented by IWPR with the financial support of the UK Government. The content of the article does not reflect the official position of the IWPR, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or the Government of the United Kingdom.
